CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001)

## NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Space Weather Research Center ( SWRC )
## Message Type: Space Weather Alert - correction to CME update (ensemble)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2014-02-02T02:44:10Z
## Message ID: 20140202-AL-001
## Summary:
BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.
Correction to alert 20140201-AL-002: the results refer to the CME with ID 2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001 (not 2014-01-30T16:24:00-CME-001 as previously indicated). Please find the correct alert below.
Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2014-01-31T16:34:00-CME-001 (see previous alert 20140201-AL-001). Based on heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at NASA GSFC Space Weather Research Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact Earth. Out of 12 ensemble members (see notes section), 12 indicate impact at Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach Earth between about 2014-02-03T11:21Z and 2014-02-04T02:26Z (average arrival 2014-02-03T17:20Z). The roughly estimated ensemble-based expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-6 (below minor to moderate).
Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event at Earth:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_anim_tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_arrival_Earth.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Density.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Velocity.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Magnetic_field.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050_Earth_Temperature.gif
## Notes:
SWRC CME ensemble is obtained by building sets of initial CME parameters and by carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach will allow mapping of uncertainties in the initial CME parameters into statistical characterization of the CME impact at locations of interest.
Description of links: The first two links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median ensemble member, the third link is a histogram of predicted arrival times, and the remaining links show the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model density, velocity, magnetic field, and temperature at Earth.
For the full details of the modeled event (including possible impacts at other locations), please go here:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-01-31_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050/Detailed_results_20140131_163405_ncmes1_sims12_LIHUE050.txt
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